Beijing faces both ways

BLUE NOTES

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Up and down

A drop from near double-digit growth and lower projections for gross domestic product in the next few years have led analysts to debate how steep China’s downturn will be and what its impact will be for the rest of the world. Several signs point to a cooling down: Chinese house prices fell for the first time on a monthly and yearly basis in April, manufacturing has weakened in the last six months and in early May copper prices slid below $8,300 per tonne.

The World Bank says that China’s economy is in transition.In March, Premier Wen Jiabao revised the 2012 GDP to 7.5%, down from the 8% target of the last few years. Diplomats in Beijing are preparing the Fifth Ministerial Forum on China-Africa Cooperation, and with it will come a raft of new promises on trade and aid. However, talk of a slowdown has not yet affected African relations.

Governments have signed multibillion-dollar deals in Ghana and South Sudan in recent weeks and the China-Africa Development Fund completed a US$2 billion second round of fundraising from China Development Bank in late April. CADF opened its fifth African office, this one in Marrakech, in March; it promises more attention for North African economies in the aftermath of the Arab Spring. Chinese firms, still keen on winning the early advantage in countries recovering from conflict, organised investment fora in China and Côte d’Ivoire in March and April.