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January 2012

Vol 5 N0 3

Chinese New Year. Dragon dancers
Chinese New Year. Dragon dancers Mark Henley / Panos

Image courtesy of Panos Pictures
CHINA | AFRICA

The year of the dragon, again

China’s trade with Africa has overtaken the USA’s trade with the continent and will soon rival that of the European Union

Officials are building up expectations for the fifth Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC V), which Beijing will host in the last quarter of this ...

CHINA | AFRICA | IMF

How the IMF helps Chinese companies

Beijing’s cooperation with the International Monetary Fund often goes unnoticed. China has been quietly working with the...

INDIA | AFRICA

India’s new frontier

The Indian government starts 2012 aiming to almost double bilateral trade with Africa from US$46 billion to $70 bn. by 2...

BLUE NOTES

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CHOOSE WISELY

The International Monetary Fund predicts that sub-Saharan African economic growth will reach 5.8% in 2012, outpacing global growth again, thanks in part to demand from Asia. The eurozone crisis brings with it the prospect of weakened trade with traditional partners, and China and Taiwan welcomed 2012 with record oil imports from West Africa as sanctions on Iran begin to take hold.

Natural resource exporters top the list of countries that are expected to beat the SSA average: Angola, Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Zambia and Nigeria are forecast to grow by more than 6%. However, the growth in demand from Asia does not make a uniform impact in a single country or sector. In the first eleven months of 2011, India’s coal imports from South Africa fell by 24%, while those for China rose by 88%.

Politicians are demanding more from Asia. Nigeria’s President Goodluck Jonathan wants Asian traders to set up local processing plants in addition to investing in resources. The removal of the government fuel subsidy aims to make the refining sector, which is set to receive an injection of tens of billions of dollars, a profitable domestic industry.

In November, South Africa backtracked on enforcing new rules that would have required a new factory to be built on the takeover of Freeworld Coatings by Japan’s Kansai Paints. In 2012, African governments will face tough policy choices to get the most out of Asian interests.

JAPAN | AFRICA

Aggressive passivity

Japan’s cycle of political instability and the long recovery from the tsunami and Fukushima nuclear crisis signal another year of inward focus for the governing elite. Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda took office in September as the sixth premier in five years but the opposition Liberal Democratic Party controls the House of Councillors, which allows it to block all legislation that does not have a two-thirds majority in the lower house. The LDP is now seeking early general elections ahead of the 2013 deadline, while Noda’s Democratic Party of Japan is betting its political capital on a bill to double the sales tax by 2015 to meet the country’s bulging social-welfare needs.

TAIWAN | AFRICA

Recognition mission

President Ma Ying-jeou of the Kuomintang (KMT, Chinese Nationalist Party) won a second term on 14 January and now has another four years to carry forward his China-friendly policies. Taiwan’s 23 remaining allies – Burkina Faso, Gambia, São Tomé e Príncipe and Swaziland are the only African countries among them – may stay in Taipei’s camp for the duration, but their support will not be enough to give Taiwan the international influence it craves.

CHINA | TAIWAN

The diplomatic truce goes on

President Ma Ying-jeou’s election victory on 14 January gave comfort to those who feared that an opposition win might rupture the delicate détente between China and Taiwan – and herald an end to the ‘diplomatic truce’ that has prevented China from wooing Taiwan’s four remaining African allies. After a closely-fought campaign, Ma of the Kuomintang (KMT, Chinese Nationalist Party) won 51.6% of the vote. His main challenger, Tsai Ing-wen of the Democratic Progressive Party, took 45.6%. In the legislature, the KMT lost 17 seats but retains a majority, with 64 of 113 seats.

BLUE NOTES

CHOOSE WISELY

The International Monetary Fund predicts that sub-Saharan African economic growth will reach 5.8% in 2012, outpacing global growth again, thanks in part to demand from As...

Read more

ASIA | AFRICA

Business doors open wide

The Jakarta government expects 100% growth in exports to Africa over the next three years. They grew by 30% to US$3.5 billion in 2010 and should hit $4.5 bn. in 2011. More than half go to Southern Africa, and Indonesia wants to expand trade with West and East Africa, while targeting overseas energy assets to supplement declining oil production in southeast Asia’s largest economy.



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