Africa-Asia Confidential

2 November 2007
Vol 1 - Number 1

Patrick Smith talks Africa-Asia Confidential

Headlines from the launch issue. Want to see more? Email nadia@africa-confidential.com for a free sample copy

ANGOLA-CHINA
Big oil, high stakes
Luanda is Beijing's closest ally in Africa but mystery surrounds the role of Chinese companies in rebuilding the country

Beijing may try to stay out of African politics but the rivalries among Angola's elite leave its diplomats little choice. The latest row over China's US$6 billion credit line to the Luanda government pitted two former intelligence chiefs against each other: General Manuel Hélder Vieira Dias 'Kopelipa', the former security advisor to President José Eduardo dos Santos, and General Fernando Garcia Miala, the long-time military intelligence director. Kopelipa is ahead on all counts.
   With continuing support from Dos Santos, Kopelipa controls the government's management of all China's credit lines. Miala has been dismissed from the army and was sentenced on 20 September to four years in gaol for insubordination after he had questioned Kopelipa's competence and honesty in managing the China credit line. The battle may not be over. Kopelipa has other enemies in the security elite. 


JAPAN'S AID
Japan is boosting its African presence in the run-up to its grand summit, the Tokyo International Conference on African Development (TICAD) IV, scheduled for Yokohama on 28-30 May 2008. On 30-31 October, Zambia hosted the first regional preparatory meeting for TICAD IV, attended by delegates from 22 Eastern and Southern African countries, to help fix the agenda. The second preparatory meeting, for Northern, Central and West African states, is on 21-22 November in Tunisia. A proposal by the Japan-Africa Union Parliamentary League to triple aid to Africa over the next five years cheered African ministers. The League is led by TICAD III Chairman and ex-Prime Minister Yoshiro Mori.

CHINA'S BANKS Last month, two of China's leading state banks moved into Africa's two biggest economies: the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China has bought a 20% stake in Africa's biggest bank, South Africa's Standard Bank, and the China Development Bank (CDB) has launched a partnership with Nigeria's United Bank of Africa. Together with CDB's 3% stake in Britain's Barclays Bank, this opens up an array of new financing channels in Africa. Aside from the utility of the acquisitions, they will boost Beijing's credentials as an economic power in Africa, outside its usual domain of securing strategic minerals.



ANGOLA-CHINA
China's Nova Luanda

The China International Fund (CIF) appears to be the construction arm of Beiya International Development Ltd, the parent company of China Angola Oil Stock Holding Ltd, which trades Angolan oil. Its relationship to the Chinese government has never been made clear. Beiya's Chairman, Xu Jinghua, announced in March that Hangxiao Steel of Shanghai had secured a US$4.4 billion contract with CIF to build a massive residential development in Angola. The company's share price surged and government regulators investigated.
NIGERIA-ASIA
New order, new deals
Asian companies face new rules and new relationships in Africa's most prolific but politically complex oil producer
Reforms in Nigeria's oil sector, promised by Minister of State for Oil Odein Ajumogobia, will mean that some of the multibillion dollar deals with Asian companies will be reviewed (Africa Confidential Vol 48 Nos 16 & 18). Privately, officials say the review will include a consideration of some of the relationships that President Olusegun Obasanjo's government had cultivated. Officials are reassessing several agreements, including one financing deal for infrastructure previously hailed as indicative of the greater commitment to infrastructure development offered by Chinese companies.
CHINA-CHAD
The battle for Ndjamena
President Déby left Beijing with a clutch of deals after he had ditched Taipei - 'for the survival of Chad'
Losing Chad has been a big setback for Taiwan's plans in Africa. Chad had resumed diplomatic ties with Taiwan in 1997. Merchandise trade had not been important for either country: total trade in 2006 was US$57.3 million, down from $82.6 mn. in 2005.
TAIWAN-AFRICA
With friends like these...
As China's commercial ties with Africa deepen, so Taiwan's diplomatic links to the continent look ever more precarious
As it loses the diplomatic and commercial competition with Beijing, the Taiwan government is casting around for new friends and a new strategy in Africa. Painfully aware of its unequal struggle with Beijing, Taipei is courting African support to help in its struggle to join the United Nations.
SUDAN-ASIA
Shifting sands
Khartoum's côterie of Asian investors worry about a return to the North-South war
China is trying to strengthen its diplomatic and commercial relations with Sudan despite the international opprobrium that those relations have attracted. Meanwhile, Khartoum's ruling National Congress (NC, aka National Islamic Front) is seeking new partners to reduce its economic dependence on China.
REGIONAL REPORTS

SOUTH AFRICA/INDIA
Hands across the water

CONGO-KINSHASA/CHINA
La grande bouffe

AFRICA-ASIA COMMENTARY
Charting Africa's Chinese future
by Dr Chris Alden
WHO'S WHO:

Ban Ki-moon, Li Ruogu, Zhong Jianhua and Kamalesh Sharma